Results of 2007 elections are still being contested in the courts and have led some elections to be upheld and annulled. The final verdict with regard to the presidential election is still awaited from the Supreme Court, which will either affirm or annul the election said to be won by President Umaru Musa Yar’adua.
Courts have so far annulled many elections especially those of PDP governors in states like Kogi, Adamawa, Sokoto, Bayelsa and Cross River , still in the re-run elections PDP governors were returned with even lager wining margins. These governors have indirectly enjoyed tenure elongation for more than a year.
General Muhammadu Buhari the presidential candidate of opposition ANPP in 2007 is at the centre of storm since the day INEC declared Alhaji Umaru Musa Yar’adua as the winner of 2007 presidential election. Buhari, like other Nigerians, local and international observers, condemned the elections as flawed. As Usual Buhari headed to the courts to challenge the election of Yar’adua. Many Nigerians, myself inclusive, supported the idea that the courts should determine Yar’adua’s legitimacy even as traditional rulers, some Ulama’s and later his party demanded Buhari to accept Yar’adua’s election in the general interest of the North and Nigeria .
It’s now more than 15 months that President Yar’adua is occupying Aso Rock and the supreme court have not yet delivered it’s judgment on 2007 presidential election. The judgment is either of the two, to affirm or annul the election. With present realities on ground President Yar’adua will hope and pray that his election be annulled, so that as the norm of ruling PDP he can re-contest, win, and have a fresh mandate of 4 years.
Recent media reports as confirmed by aides to A.C‘s presidential candidate Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, confirmed that there are secret talks going on between him and Yar’adua, and there are rumours going round of the possibility of Atiku Abubakar returning to PDP. With such development and with the typical Nigerian situation sooner or later the Atiku camp may withdraw its case from the Supreme Court and decamp back to PDP.
The hard nut to crack is General Muhammadu Buhari.; following his antecedents after the 2003 elections where he logically followed his case to the end at the Supreme Court. This time around from the various media interviews he affirmed his decision of following his case to its logical conclusion in the Supreme Court. As I said earlier, am one of those that had been supporting General Buhari right from when he joined politics and even propagated that he should pursue his case right to the supreme court in the interest of the masses and democracy in Nigeria. But my fears these days are many especially if the Supreme Court does annul Yar’adua’s election. Also if the apex court finally legitimizes Yar’adua’s election, what will be the fate of Buhari and his supporters in the 2011 elections?
Let’s assume that the Supreme Court annuls Yar’adua’s election and demand for a re-run. The reality on ground is whether General Buhari is ready and capable to win such election? As a start he doesn’t even have a vice presidential candidate as he and Chief Ume Ezeoke who double’s as ANPP chairman and Buhari running mate are at each others throat and by implication Buhari does not have the party’s backing. All ANPP governors excluding Alhaji Mahmud Aliyu Shinkafi of Zamfara state are not in good terms with and not in support of Buhari. Governor Ali Modu Sheriff of Borno state had clearly stated that he would support Yar’adua in a re-run election, Governor Ibrahim Shekarau of Kano state has a deep animosity with Buhari and he is now concerned with how he can be ANPP presidential candidate for 2011 elections . As for Governors Isa Yuguda of Bauchi state and Mamman Ali of Yobe state even though they have not clearly stated their relationship with Buhari, but they are in support of the position of their party which accepts to be part of the government of national unity.
In such a scenario how can Buhari win a re-run election with a divided house while he has accused most of ANPP leaders and elders as merchants of PDP. Even if he wins the re-run election how can he contend with PDP controlling more than two/third of States and the National Assembly with its leadership?
In the event that Supreme Court affirm Yar’adua’s election, what will be the fate of Buhari in ANPP? Will he still contest for presidential election in 2011? And if he does will other presidential aspirants step down for him? In case they do, how sure is he that what occurred in 2003 and 2007 presidential election will not re-occur?
The ball is in the court of General Buhari to either to either bow to pressure of eminent Northerners and his party to withdraw his case before the Supreme Court and demand for concessions as it has happened in Kenya and about to happen again in Zimbabwe . If not, he should start the process of grooming his own presidential candidate for 2011 within ANPP or any other platform he might decide to use. And if he decides to pursue his case to its logical conclusion in the apex court and the court orders a re-run, it will be the greatest disservice to Nigerians if General Buhari fails to make impact and indirectly add more years to Yar’adua’s government.
Opposition parties and General Buhari in particular seem to be overwhelmed, intimidated and crushed by the PDP forces. Either of the two is the reason why PDP is having a field day , that Nigerians are contented with the way and manner the ruling party is conducting the affairs of the country or the Nigerian people are not satisfied with the qualities of those seeking to take over affairs from PDP forces . Cases in point are how people of Kano , Bauchi and Lagos states affirmed their choices even though PDP controls the apparatus of power.
As for Nigerians their destiny is in their own hands, they either tolerate the excess of ruling PDP or desire for a change. Whenever they are ready as it has happened in so many countries.
If General Buhari wants to make any impact in Nigerian politics in future, he has to look into the achievements recorded by Chief Obafemi Awolowo and Malam Aminu Kano even though they couldn’t rule Nigeria but they left a mark in history through imprints of their ideology on Nigerian politics. Why wouldn’t Buhari consolidate his ideology through grooming his own supporters and followers under his own umbrella?
Nigerians are now indifferent of the outcome of judgment at the Supreme Court as they know the realities on ground will not change the fortunes of ruling PDP. It now left for General Buhari to either accept the reality that if the court decides in his favour, indirectly he has paved the way for tenure elongation to Yar’adua and PDP. Whatever he decides the plan for the future is the most important.
Shehu Mustapha Chaji
shehuchaji@yahoo.com
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